Monday, 7 November 2016

Is Hillary Clinton or Donald Trump winning the US election - and who will be the next President?

Who is winning the vote right now - and who will win out come election day? Will we see President Donald Trump or President Hillary Clinton? 

Based on data from RealClearPolitics, here are our latest predictions and an estimate of the final electoral college result.

Will Hillary Clinton win?
Clinton has been ahead almost continuously in the Telegraph's poll of polls, which takes an average of the last five published on RealClearPolitics. US presidential poll trackerAverage of the last five polls, based on a four-way raceTrumpClintonMar '16May '16Jul '16Sep '16Nov '163540455055
Source: RCP

Will Donald Trump win?
The presidential campaign has seen Donald Trump, once a Republican outsider, close the gap on Clinton before falling back after a series of controversies.
Is Hillary Clinton or Donald Trump winning the US election - and who will be the next President?
Trump has briefly pulled ahead a couple of times - first on 19 May. His polling threatened to consistently overtake Clinton in September, but fell back after a series of allegations.

How does the presidential election work?
Each of the 50 states, as well as the District of Columbia, has a set number of electoral college votes to award a candidate, based on the number of members of Congress it has. This is roughly in line with population. Except in Maine and Nebraska, votes are on a winner-takes-all basis.

This system matters, as the popular vote is less important than the electoral college vote. Clinton's campaign should be buoyed by big Democratic states such as New York, New Jersey, Illinois and California, and these populous states could lead her to victory with their large number of electoral college votes.

The states to watch

Swing states – states that often switch between Democrat and Republican in different elections – are also important.

States like Arizona, Florida, North Carolina, Ohio and Virginia have the power to swing the election. So far, neither Trump nor Clinton has a significant lead in these crucial states.

How could demographics impact the US election?
Age, race, gender and education are all big dividing points in the presidential race, with polling showing that men and whites are backing Trump while women and ethnic minorities support Clinton.

Race has always been a huge dividing line in the US election, and the clash between Trump and Clinton is no different. Just 17 per cent of Hispanics and three per cent of black people back Trump, according to recent polling.

This could prove significant in this election. For example, Hispanics account for more than a fifth of the population in four key swing states.

Education is another big demographic division in the race - and there's a reason why Trump said he "loved the poorly educated".

Among high school graduates or those with a lower level of education, Trump has the backing of 44% - compared to the 36% who support Clinton.

This could prove significant in the swing states of Georgia and Nevada, which both have a high proportion of people failing to graduate from high school.

We've mapped out each candidate's road to the White House here and you can keep up with what to look out for in the US Senate and House of Representatives elections with our handy guide. www.telegraph.co.uk
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